author's blog

The warm bath of confirmation bias Tue, 09 Mar 2010 13:19:00 GMT So James Taranto, a Wall Street Journal editorialist, mocks Paul Krugman. Sure, he's a Nobel Prize-winning economist, Taranto says. But he's also a frothing liberal ideologue. And in his writing at the New York Times, the ideologue trumps the laureate every time. See, Taranto says. Krugman is advocating good unemployment benefits in the pages of the Times but in his textbook he says such benefits can actually keep unemployment high. Gotcha! Naturally, the conservative blogosphere loves this. Krugman's humiliation is linked to all over the place. But then Krugman responds. To this layman's eye, Taranto comes out of the exchange looking like an ignoramus. Or a lyin' propagandist. As for the people who linked to Taranto, they are victims of unchecked confirmation bias. It's not just that they believed Taranto's take in the first place. That was understandable enough. But most of those who linked to Taranto didn't link to Krugman's response and adjust their conclusions accordingly. Were they being deliberately dishonest? Probably not. It's more likely they didn't give Krugman's response serious consideration because, well, he's Paul Krugman. Or even more likely, they are unaware of the response because they are conservatives who read conservatives. And he's Paul Krugman. For someone with no dog in the hunt, this scrap is less interesting as a matter of public policy than it is a valuable reminder about the new information environment we live in. Thanks to the Internet, we need never get out of the warm bath of confirmation. We can be right all day, every day. Such a soothing and delightful sensation! Unfortunately, the cost of that feeling is very likely to be mounting levels of misunderstanding, ignorance, and flat-out delusion. Doctor's prescription: Get out of the warm bath at least once a day and take a cold shower of disconfirmation. It's unpleasant as hell. But it's good for what ails ya.   The HOW-COULD-I-FORGET update: There's lots more on the debilitating effect of confirmation bias in this fine book. And in my forthcoming book on expert predictions, I have what I modestly think is an absolutely freaking fascinating look at how confirmation bias led one of the mid-20th century's leading public intellectuals into a swamp of nonsense.

George Carlin on religion Sat, 06 Mar 2010 15:20:00 GMT The big problem with being an atheist is that no one will beatify you after you die, no matter how much you deserve it. *Warning: salty language and severe irreverence*

Defend the Duke Sat, 06 Mar 2010 13:53:00 GMT Saving our history from lovers of "heritage," in today's column.

History, reformulated Sat, 06 Mar 2010 01:40:00 GMT Take 4,000 years of history, turn upside down, shake. Stimulatin' stuff.

Revisionism Fri, 05 Mar 2010 13:41:00 GMT Oh my, Christopher Hitchens has a chisel.

Baby bust Fri, 05 Mar 2010 12:57:00 GMT Today's column, in which I compare babies to viruses. Sorta.

"It was like breaking into Hell." Thu, 04 Mar 2010 16:52:00 GMT There's a reason why the word "hero" should be used much more sparingly than it has been in recent days.